What a show! Peace talks between the Thai and Cambodian military leaders over temple row เล่นละครหลอกคนดู เจรจาทางการทหารกรณีเขาพระวิหาร

Cambodian Defence Minister General Tea Banh and Thai Supreme Commander General Boonsrang Niempradit at the Press Conference after their bilateral talks on 21 July

And as can be expected, the supposed to be a bilateral talk between Thailand Supreme Command Gen Boonsrang Niempradit and Cambodia Defence Minister Teah Banh ended with status quo: no immediate military withdrawal from the border on both sides and no immediate end to the legal status or negotiation on the 4.6 km overlapping zone. However, there has been suggested that ASEAN could facilitate the negotiation on the issue later.

Ending with status quo and no military withdrawal from the boder

Since both sides did not expect any concrete result on the temple row to come out of the discussion, why did they set up the bilateral talks in the first place? Was it just to show the government’s commitment and seriousness on the issue? Samak government is facing not only severe political setback but also is being challenged by two main opponents the political activist PAD and the opposition Democrat Party. Hun Sen ’s Cambodia People Party is campaigning for an upcoming election on Sunday 27 July. Although CPP is surely to regain its victory, Hun Sen can never lose face on this issue. The sovereignty over the Hindu temple called Preah Vihear is a very sensitive issue. Losing it will lessen his credibility in the public eyes. Internal politics play a significant role in this bilateral conflict on the regional level.

ASEAN may be asked to facilitate the negotiation on the legal status and the overlapping zone of the 4.6 km but even with their good facilitation skill I doubt if they could do much. At best, they can have the two parties to sit together and discuss but no permanent and long term solution can result from it.

Perhaps the best solution for the two parties involved is to keep the status quo. The Thais can not dispute the legal status of the temple as it was ruled by the International Court of Justice since 1962 and the ruling should be final. Just forget the past and walk on. As a Thai, we may not agree with the court decision, but still we have to accept it.

PPP vs PAD: NBT vs ASTV and their supporters vs your supporters

mob against mob

Something to look forward to or a factor to further political polarisation? Television talk on Sunday morning of Thai PM Samak Sundaravej has, as always, raised an eyebrow of many in the country. His strategy to fight back the satellite based television ASTV, owned by one of the PAD’s leaders Sonthi Limthongkul, by airing the government own programme on government own television station NBT or formally channel 11 shows how vulnerable the government is to the tactics and the strategies employed by the PAD.

PAD has their rights to protest and to express their opinion against the government. These rights can also be applied to any other mobs being organised nationwide. However, those protesters must also know that their rights are limited and they are protected under the rule of law. Under all circumstances, they do not have the authority to damage or enter into private property without permission or consent, to block public road and to demand others to disclose their private properties.

Although I do not agree to what PAD and their supporters try to achieve especially their proposal for 70:30 proportion in the political system, I have not seen them damage any properties be it private or government own. Whereas mobs elsewhere organised by their opponents especially in the Northern and Northeastern regions tend to engage in violence. One obvious example would be a mob of 1,000 people in Chiangrai on Saturday. They blocked the road to go out from and go in to the airport, checked every car every single space inside the car with the suspicion that members of PAD might hide themselves in one of those cars. They even went to a hotel demanded the hotel owner to open every room for their inspection. When they could not find PAD members they went to a house they believed owned by Sonthi Limthongkul and threw stones to the house and damaged the electricity transformer.

THEY DO NOT HAVE ANY RIGHT TO DESTROY PRIVATE PROPERTY. Surprisingly, they were allowed to commit all these ugly actions without state authority coming in to stop it. This could set an example for other provinces to follow. Especially positive signal was given by the Prime Minister on his Sunday talk when he said that PAD is trying to take control of every province and therefore the government needs to fight back. This has indirectly urged people nationwide who support former Thai Rak Thai and People’s Power Party to fight against PAD supporters in all provinces.

This is the most dangerous strategy to employ and I hope the PPP know what they are doing and have the plan to manage this social polarisation. The society and the country are split, urging the two main opponent parties to physically fight each other will widen the gap further. PPP can never rule in peace and the conflict can never end.

Tension escalated at the Thai-Cambodian border

Preah Vihear Temple

As can be expected, tension along the Thai-Cambodian border has escalated in the last few days. Yesterday, I learnt from the news report that 3 Thais were detailed and this morning news confirmed that they were already released. Although those 3 ordinary Thai citizens were released, it is claimed that a number of Thai soldiers are detained by the Cambodian soldiers.

Noppadol Pattama, former Foreign Minister, resigned on 14 July 2008

The issue captured much of public attention after the former Foreign Minister Noppadol Pattama had already signed a joint communique with the Cambodian government on 18 June. The PAD and the Opposition Democrat Party used the issue to exert pressure on the government both inside and outside the parliament which had led Noppadol to tender his resignation - as a responsible party.

Using nationalism as a tool to exert pressure on the government can be easily understood - it is cheap and it always works, but who will be responsible for the consequences.

I had a chance to talk with a Cambodian colleague recently when we met in Bangkok. I asked “what is your opinion on the issue of Preah Vihear?”. She said Cambodian people are upset with the latest development and do not understand why Thai politicians have to politicise the issue further. Leaving the issue beyond politics and it may be solvable? May be, but I am not quite sure. Yet, I do agree with my colleague that politcising the issue has made it even more difficult to solve.

Both countries have different information background on this Hindu Temple. The Thais would argue that our government since King Rama the Fifth had never accepted the ruling of the International Court of Justice, the staircase leading to the temple itself is evidence. The Cambodian would rebut that the temple has all along belonged to Cambodia and the ruling of the international court ascertained it. While there can be no proved as to who is right and wrong, would not it be better to leave it as it has been. Now that the temple has been listed as a World Heritage, perhaps the Thai should also submit the request to list the surrounding areas as World Heritage as well.

Thailand Cabinet reshuffle will bring in more ugly faces ปรับครม ได้คนที่แย่กว่าเดิม

When Samak said he would reveal the list of new cabinet by 24th July, media and public expect not only those ugly faces to change ministries but more of the devils to join in. Minister of Interior Chalerm Yubumrung, who was chased out from every provinces he has visisted, might move to Ministry of Justice so that to exert pressure on the judges who will rule on Thaksin’s court cases at the end of July. Former Minister of Health Chaiya Sasomsub, a well known godfather in Nakonpratom province who is an expert in money politics, could return to the ssame ministry of take a new position in the Ministry of Interior. Most of Thaksin’s close allies will have even stronger position in a new cabinet.

Academics in Bangkok describes it as “Samak strikes back” strategy. If people do not like whoever are close to former premier Thaksin to govern the country, Samak is more than willing to bring them all in. Samak may be in a fighting mood after a not-so-secret meeting with Thaksin oversea. But his current moves detest the public even more. This would further escalate the political polarisation in the society.

In the evening news yesterday, Belgian President resigned due to the unresolved polarisation in the society. I remember I was discussing with a family - can it actually happen in Thailand? Will our country leader be ashamed and resign voluntarily for the sake of peace and stability of the country? I know I was talking of something impossible. Samak can never be ashamed of what he has done to the country. He has never been wrong along his political life. His stubborn resistance will prolong the political stalemate as the PAD will never back-pedal their effort to bring down Thaksin nominee government. It would only be in a dream to see them dissolve the parliament. Why do it when you are already in control of the game!

Cabinet reshuffle or house dissolution ปรับครม หรือ ยุบสภา

Recent court verdicts saw a few senior members of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and its coalition For Motherland party falling down the drain.

Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions found ex-deputy leader of PPP Yongyuth Tiyapairat, contested in Chiang Rai’s constituency 3, guilty in electoral fraud case from last year’s general election. The court ruling would have a tremendous affect on the future of the PPP because Yongyuth was an executive member when the alleged electoral fraud took place. This could lead to dissolution of PPP, led by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej.

A day later, Constitution Court disqualified Public Health Minister Chaiya Sasomsab from ministerial post after he failed to properly report his wife’s shareholding in a company before the 30-day assets deadline.

Article 269 of the constitution stipulates that a minister, his or her spouse, and children under legal age who intend to hold stock should inform the NCCC within 30 days of the minister’s appointment to the cabinet.

Mr Chaiya took office on February 6. His wife Churai has 25,000 shares, worth 2.5 million baht, in the company, which is half of the total share issue. This is in excess of the 5% legal limit.

On the same day, the Supreme Court ordered arrest former deputy interior minister Vatana Asavahame after he failed to appear on corruption charges in a wastewater treatment scam.

On 8 July 2008, the Constitution Court ruled that Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama violated the constitution by signing the joint communique with Phnom Penh on 18 June 2008 over Preah Vihear temple without submitting the agreement to parliament.

Article 190 says any decisions which could affect Thai national sovereignty must be considered by parliament.

The decision came less than a day after the World Heritage Committee approved the application to list the 11th century temple as a World Heritage site.

So it seems the government is facing political deadlock and there are not many viable options for them to take.

1. Scenario 1: PM Samak submits resignation and pave way for a new nominee of Thaksin Shinawatra or Banharn Silapa-archa, Chart Thai party or Abhisit Vejjajiva, Democract leader or a non-elected prime minister.

2. Scenario 2: Dissolve parliament and call for a snap election

3. Scenario 3: Drag on and pretends to run business as usual. But how long he can hold on to this government.

- He will soon face with a constitutional court case for hosting TV programme

- He also faces a libel case filed against him by former Bangkok deputy govenor Samart Ratchapolsitte in the Appeal court. The Criminal court sentenced him to two years in jail.

Time is ticking and it is against Samak himself and his government. The PPP government is buying time as public confidence in the party has eroded folliwng the court verdict on the cabinet approval of the Joint Communique on the Phrea Vihear temple. Samak and his ministers do not dare to dissolve the house now becuase they are unsure if the party can regain the same majority if snap election called. People in Northeastern provinces are very unhappy with the Joint Communique and are asking the Foreign Minister and the cabinet to be responsible. This explains why Samak has always insisted that he will never back down as he can not.

Scenario 1 is illusionary. Samak can never step down - he has been fighting for this position for all his political life and he will hold on to it no matter what.

Scenario 2 is viable and advisable but may not be desirable because of the uncertainty as mentioned above.

Scenario 3 is viable and is likely to be taken by Samak. The more he fights the more he ties all the messy ropes around him. When he wakes up he might already be in jail. He has criticised the judicial as too excessive power. But without it, there will be nothing left for the Thais to rely on.

In latest poll carried out by Suan dusit, 28% say they want a cabinet reshuffle and 25% want a new government. But i doubt if our Prime Minister Samak will listen to what people want. He has never taken public criticism seriously.